Bangladesh’s agriculture sector recorded its weakest growth in over a decade during the fiscal year 2024–25, raising fresh concerns over food security, rural livelihoods, and the country’s overall economic recovery.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the sector grew by only 1.79 percent, matching the lowest growth rate observed in the past 11 years. The last time growth was this low was in FY 2015–16. In comparison, the agriculture sector grew by 2.45 percent in FY 2014–15.
Agricultural economists and industry insiders attribute the slowdown to a combination of unfavorable conditions, including prolonged flooding, unseasonal rainfall, and ongoing political unrest.
The sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) has also continued its long-term decline. While agriculture accounted for over 38 percent of GDP in the early 1970s, its share dropped to 11.3 percent in FY 2022–23 and further declined to 10.94 percent in FY 2024–25, according to BBS data.
“This growth rate is the lowest in recent years, primarily due to repeated flooding, followed by droughts and heavy rainfall that severely disrupted cultivation,” said Jahangir Alam Khan, an agriculture economist and former president of the Bangladesh Agricultural Economists Association.
Khan noted that the production of Aus and Aman season paddy, as well as various vegetables, was significantly affected. The livestock and poultry sectors also experienced a downturn, making a slowdown in growth inevitable.
He recalled that in FY 2009–10, agricultural growth reached an all-time high of 7 percent. Since then, growth hovered around 4 to 5 percent until the sharp decline observed this fiscal year.
Due to reduced domestic production, the country has been forced to increase imports. As of April in the current fiscal year, approximately 600,000 tonnes of rice and over 4 million tonnes of wheat had to be imported, Khan added. He also pointed out that the prices of many essential food items have surged in local markets, a direct result of decreased agricultural output.
Between June 19 and June 23 of last year, floods affected seven districts in the Sylhet and Rangpur divisions, damaging 14 percent of crops, including Aus and Aman seedlings and various vegetables, according to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE).
Just a week later, another flood struck 14 districts in the north, northeast, and southeast regions, affecting 13 percent of all crops. In August, yet another bout of floods and heavy rain impacted 23 districts, damaging 15 percent of crops, followed by additional damage in September when 16 districts were affected by rains that harmed around one percent of crops.
The cumulative impact of two major floods in the Chattogram, Sylhet, and Mymensingh divisions resulted in the loss of nearly 1 million tonnes of Aman paddy just before the flowering stage, as per DAE estimates.
An assessment by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) estimated that flood-related damages in the eastern region amounted to at least Tk 14,421.46 crore, with the agriculture and forestry sectors suffering the most, estimated at Tk 5,169.71 crore.
Mohammad Jahangir Alam, a professor in the Department of Agribusiness and Marketing at Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU), echoed Khan’s observations. He added that investment in the poultry and livestock sectors was significantly below expectations this fiscal year, contributing to the overall slowdown.
He also emphasized the impact of political instability since June of the previous year, which has negatively influenced investment across all sectors.
A Bangladesh Bank report revealed that credit disbursement to the agriculture sector, particularly in the livestock and poultry sub-sectors, declined in the first eight months of FY 2024–25. Scheduled banks disbursed a total of Tk 22,125 crore in this period—a 6.60 percent decrease year-on-year.
